2024 IS UPON US, which means it’s time for bold predictions. Mavendog prides itself on its unique place in a saturated consulting market. Our model, growth, and staying power are emblematic of a dramatic shift taking place in the workforce – a movement toward greater worker independence, autonomy, and 1099 contracting. The movement is particularly evident in project management – a perfect arena for individuals who thrive in gig-centric work. The theme of our 2024 predictions, therefore, is based on this workforce movement that is both entrepreneurial and uniquely American.
1. The surge of independent workers is here to stay in 2024.
More and more working professionals are moving away from traditional employment paradigms and ‘ways of working’ to independent contracting (i.e., freelancing, “solopreneurship”, and self-employment). The numbers supporting this movement are staggering. According to Emergent Research, which draws its data from the Department of Labor, there are now 72.1 million active independent workers. That’s roughly 45% of the American workforce. For full-time independent professionals, the number was 26 million in 2023 (16%), up from 13.6 million in 2020. That’s 90% growth in three years.
According to the annual 2023 MBO Partners State of Independence study series, the independent surge is not just confined to a handful of, established, semi-retired professionals. It is a movement that transcends all generational categories. Of the Gen X community (i.e., those at the peak of their careers), almost a third (29%) are abandoning formal, corporate leadership positions for self-employment. The Millennial community (Gen Y), who had soured on traditional employment after the Great recession, are opting for independent work (33% independent) for the next phase of their careers. The same is true for Gen Z (19% independent), or the “Zoomer” generation. Their motivations and individual preferences are entrepreneurial – creative autonomy, project preferences, self-actualized personal branding, work/life flexibility, and self-driven career growth. To Zoomers, full-time employment is both unappealing and anachronistic.
The movement towards independent contracting is not a temporary trend. It’s a new a workforce zeitgeist – a generational, cultural, and labor movement that has been bubbling under the surface of our corporate landscape for decades. Expect it to stay, if not spread in 2024.
2. Talent/skill shortages will “get worse” (from an employment sense).
In the annual, 2023 IT Trends study by the Society for Information Management (SIM), it cites Talent/Skill Shortage as a top issue for organizations – a spike from the 16th “most worrisome issue” in 2021 to 6th in 2023. This shortage is a systemic problem, not an isolated or cyclical economic dip. It can be attributed to several factors (an aging workforce; a smaller pool of skilled labor; etc.). Many corporate leaders have a singular interpretation of the issue – that a stubborn segment of the workforce is clinging to the COVID remote lifestyle and doesn’t want to return to the office. The Elon Musks of the world are downright combative about it.
But this is 2024, not 2021. The issue is more than a lingering, post-COVID, “remote vs. onsite” tug-o-war between workers and executives. It is a significant workforce migration from traditional, W2 employment to independent, 1099 contracting. Today, more and more workers have the preference, capability, and technical tools to compete in our marketplace as standalone, self-employed assets.
HR leaders who try to solve talent shortages solely by hiring, retaining, and developing employees may find themselves short-changed. Even the typical “carrots” of employment that would attract talent are less and less motivating to 45% of the American workforce. Only healthcare benefits remain the biggest obstacle to independents, with options limited to the Affordable Care Act (ACA)’s Healthcare Exchange; Medicare for ages 65 or older; TRICARE for the military/Veteran community; or a spouse’s healthcare plan. Healthcare aside, for the self-employed, the independent economy is more lucrative with wider access to diverse and career-building challenges (and of course greater work/life flexibility and autonomy). Plus, the more capable (and specialized) the self-employed are, the more sovereign they can be, with often a legitimate argument for certain privileges, such as remote work. Simply put, employers can no longer ignore the reality of the independent market. If their talent strategy is biased towards employee labor, then their talent/skill shortages will indeed get worse.
3. AI will democratize the project management career landscape.
AI (Artificial Intelligence) is the buzzword of the day, but it is worth mentioning in context of the independent workforce. Cloud computing and AI are huge factors in a technical revolution that has enabled smaller businesses, boutiques, and sole proprietorships to ‘punch above their weight’. This is particularly true for project management companies. Gartner, Inc. predicted in 2019 that 80% of project management work will be done by AI by 2030. That prediction does appear to be coming to pass, with AI-driven project management tools, notably generative AI, streamlining the administrative drag on project managers and Project Management Offices (PMOs) – scheduling, resource allocation, status reporting, etc. These tools can analyze vast amounts of project data, providing insights that help forecast potential challenges and optimize resource utilization.
The impact on the project management market is a ‘leveling of the playing field’ between employed and independent project managers — a sort of democratization of that career landscape. AI tools liberate individual project managers from large scale, enterprise project management software that was once necessary to practice their trade at a high level (and often exclusive to employees). As a result, it’s far more feasible, common, and even preferred for corporate leaders to turn to independent, third-party, contracted project managers to run large, enterprise projects.
4. More product managers will enter the independent economy.
The independent movement impacts the product management domain too. Product managers, like their project manager colleagues, bring a wealth of experience from working with various industries, product types, and operational frameworks. The role is more evolved, elevated, and specialized, not only in product innovation, but also for value analysis and engineering, product maintenance (i.e., parts becoming obsolete), and automation.
Mavendog has seen a rise in demand for product management freelance, consulting, and entrepreneurialism. With the advancement of technology and the tempting pull of the independent economy, product managers are no longer confined to rigid employment constructs for a product management career. The independent economy offers them more mobility to take their talents on the road. It gives them the flexibility of working on different products, collaborating with various company types and challenges, and building a professional portfolio of product types.
As the demand for experienced product management expertise continues to rise, companies often seek external consultants to provide specialized product insights, strategic guidance, and hands-on support.
5. PMOs get smaller, leaner, smarter.
A lot has been written about PMOs (the Project Management Office), including through Mavendog’s thought leadership. In 2024, we will continue to see the impact of digital transformation on PMOs, particularly in Machine Learning tools that help with project definition, planning, and reporting. Corporations have been investing in their PMOs since COVID, arming them with cloud based A.I. platforms designed to help organizations effectively manage and execute projects and enable remote, diversified teams. PMOs as a result are getting smaller, leaner, and smarter, freeing up their PMO Directors to be even more effectual on a corporate, strategic level. Like an intelligence director, they oversee and react to a clearing house of corporate and departmental intelligence and project requisitions. Such information is analyzed, prioritized, defined, and planned as actionable projects, products, and program transformations. In 2024, the PMO Director role tied to driving innovation and change more than ever before, especially when speed-to-market urgency is high.
As we discussed throughout this article, the makeup of the modern American workforce is a hybrid one of employees and independents. There is no greater evidence of this than today’s PMO. In this vein, strategically positioned PMOs are starting to trump traditional HR when it comes to talent evaluation and selection, especially for the formation rapid-response, project management teams. At least from the project and product perspective, PMOs are better positioned to not only mitigate the talent shortage issue, but also become the engine of corporate innovation and competitiveness. It is an exciting evolution to witness. PMOs, which have the reputation of being slow, lumbering, and bureaucratic, now find themselves as the motor behind strategic change, differentiation, and competitiveness. To this end they are moving up into C-Level spheres of influence. Just as Information Technology began to rise in executive prominence in the 2000s, with the advent of the CIO and CTO roles, PMOs and its leaders will find themselves in complementary, executive seats.
About Mavendog, LLC
Mavendog is a project leadership firm of independent, program and project leaders who operate as Affiliates under the brand. The firm is a unique conduit to the American independent economy. Since 2017, Mavendog has been committed to helping clients with their project challenges, from complex IT portfolios and programs to tactical project needs. Today, Mavendog is a preferred consulting asset for managing and driving information technology and enterprise change initiatives. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C.